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A farmer will have to feed 2.25 people, compared to 1.75 today and there will be less potential for extending cropland areas than in the past. Agricultural intensification, which is already underway notably in peri-urban areas, will inevitably continue.
In comparison with other parts of the world, agricultural intensification in West Africa remains low. Although fertiliser consumption increased five-fold from 1970 to 2000, it is still 10 times lower than the world average.
Irrigation use is also expected to increase. West Africa has considerable potential in this field – over 9 million hectares [1] – which is as yet little used (8% of irrigable land) in comparison with other regions, especially North Africa. Today, fewer than a million hectares of land are effectively irrigated in the region, to which the same amount of shallow or receding water areas must be added. However, prospects seem to focus on the increase in cropping intensity [2] rather than that of irrigated areas [3].
[1] Aquastat (2005): Irrigation in Africa in Figures.
[2] Cropping intensity is a perimeter’s annual cropping area/equipped area. In West Africa, specialists estimate that this ratio could increase from 129% in 1996 to 156% in 2030.
[3] Sonou Moïse (2000): Tendances et perspectives de l’irrigation en Afrique sub-saharienne.